If you are going to do it you need to do it properly and master it, it means you are completely organized and focused. You shouldn’t favor a team because they are the team your best friend supports. Thus when you are doing well, you will still be focused and when you aren’t doing so well you won’t be thinking that it’s the end of the world. Also look into how sides perform the week after doing certain travel. You can’t let the highs and lows affect you too much.
Information and doing your homework is important, but you don’t want to full into the trap of information overload. Hopefully this kind of thinking will keep you grounded. Upsets are always going to happen but see when it makes the most sense when to go for that and when not to. Business is business and you need to be concentrating on who is going to win regardless of who likes and who doesn’t like which team.
Speaking of the long run, this is what you should be focused on. What is the point of drowning yourself in statistics and research for what you could just as easily decided with a flip of the coin? So you need to sift through it all and just take the morsels here and there which are really important and make a difference. Travel is a factor such as when East Coast sides travel to the West Coast and vice versa. It could provide great insight as to predicting what will occur.
Because of this point, it is probably better if you steer clear from any matches involving the teams that you like. On the flip side, you shouldn’t bet against a team because someone you don’t like roots for that team. So do yourself a favor and swear off them. It’s all about accumulating winnings. So if you suffer a bad break along the way, just remember it goes with the territory. You will be better off for doing so in the long run.
Sports betting is an easy way to make a tough living. It is only going to place you in a difficult position and as much as you might think it won’t be, your decision making ability is going to be compromised. In the case of team sports, injuries are important. You want to know who trained and who didn’t. Over time, you will learn what it should be that you should be paying attention to.
Look for value bets. You don’t want to lose money just because you weren’t on top of your game.
The most important thing is that you need to take emotion out of the equation. For instance, if you are pretty certain that a side is going to win and they are getting good odds for this than take this. It doesn’t matter if it is pretty or not.
. This means that when you place your bets you need to be thinking clearly and concisely. Anything less than this and it is going to be a disaster. The weather conditions also make a difference as they do in horse racing
Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team’s power rating are key player injuries and player trades. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line “feels right.” This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.
Why the Line Changes
Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather.
Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the betting action, public perception and betting patterns must be taken into account.
Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football team such as USC. Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an “adjusted line.”
A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks.
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias. Reasons for such adjustments include:
How the Opening Line Is Made
“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said.
What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish?
Moving the line is the oddsmaker’s effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action.
Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team’s most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides.
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.
For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not.”
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor).
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a “preliminary” pointspread on an upcoming game.
The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action